There are many different methods and tools utilized in technical analysis, but they all rely on the same principles – that price patterns and price trends exist in the market and that they can be identified and turned into profit opportunities.
Technical Analysis in currency trading is based on three core principles:
The actual price is a reflection of everything known to the market that could possibly have an affect on price movement and includes supply and demand, political factors, and the market sentiment.
The pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, NOT the reasons behind the price movements.
Prices Move in Trends
Prices can move in three directions – they can move up, down or sideways.
Once a trend in any of these directions is in effect it usually, will persist and create a trend.
The market trend is simply defined as the direction of market prices, a concept that is essential to the success of technical analysis in currency trading.
Identifying trends in theory is simple; a price chart will usually indicate the prevailing trend as characterized by a series of waves with obvious peaks and troughs.
It is the direction of these peaks and troughs that constitutes the market trend, if they move up, the trend is bullish, if they move down the trend is bearish and of course if they move sideways then the market is in a period of consolidation.
History Tends to Repeat Itself
To a technical analyst in currency trading, the trader psychology that affects prices is extremely important, as human nature is repetitive and this shows up in repetitive price patterns.
This allows anyone using technical analysis in currency trading to predict where prices are likely to go next and traders can then act upon this information for profit.
The market price reflects everything
Technical analysis in currency trading is primarily concerned with price trends and everything that can possibly affect a currency is reflected in price action.
The logic of technical analysis for currency trading is universally accepted, and there are numerous ways to execute technical trading systems, with the huge amount of available indictors used either alone, or in combination.
We will look at the different technical indicators below and some that have proved highly effective in the technical analysis of currency trading. Any traders, who wish to profit from the currency markets, should consider these indicators.
A trend is a term used to describe the persistence of price movement in one direction over time. The easiest way to spot trends is via trend lines, drawn below price lows or above price highs.
While basic trend lines have gone out of fashion in recent years in favor of more complicated indicators, they are still one of the most effective ways to technically analyze currency movements.
Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon reflects basic supply and demand and when prices break above or below significant support or resistance, a big move can follow very quickly.
Again, the best method for spotting and acting on these breaks is the humble trend line.
We believe that trend lines should be the basis on which ANY technical analysis of currencies should be based on – and the indicators below are for confirmation:
Volatility is a general term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations independent of their direction. Generally, changes in volatility tend to lead changes in prices.
One great indicator to use is the Bollinger band
Any trader should look at Bollinger Bands, as they represent one of the most effective indicators for the technical analysis of currency markets.
Not only is it good for predicting trend movements, but also it is useful for timing entry and exit levels, as well as when to increase or decrease position size.
A cycle is a term to indicate repeating patterns of market movement, specific to recurrent events, such as elections, year-end monetary repatriation etc.
Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market patterns. A good example would be Elliott Wave theory. Cycle indicators however in our view are of little or no use, in the technical analysis of currencies.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over given time periods.
Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is generally highest at the start of a trend and lowest at market turning points.
Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, then an end of movement in the current direction could occur.
If however momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. Examples of momentum indicators include Stochastics, MACD and RSI.
The most effective momentum indictor is the stochastic and using stochastic crossovers to time entry and exit levels, can be highly effective.
Many technical analysts in currency trading monitor surveys of investor sentiment such as net trader’s positions and bullish consensus.
These indicators attempt to gauge the general attitude of the investment community, to determine whether investors are bearish or bullish.
These indicators are only to be used when extremes of sentiment are reached, either bullish or bearish.
If used in this way, they are one of the most powerful warning signs of significant market turning points and can be used in technical analysis of currency markets to huge effect.
Putting it all Together
Traders make money from the technical analysis of currency markets in many different ways, however we believe that trend lines backed up by just a few additional indicators (to help time market entry exit and stop levels) can be very effective.
The ones we favor are: Bollinger bands, stochastics and market sentiment indicators, as filters for traditional trend lines.
The best way to succeed in technical analysis of currency trading is to use a simple robust system based on trendlines and just a few filter indicators such as the ones above and you will soon find yourself catching the big trends that yield the big profits.
Disclosures & Disclaimers: FUTURES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING OR WITH ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR PROGRAM. CAREFUL EVALUATION OF YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION MUST BE DONE PRIOR TO DECIDING TO TRADE IN THE FUTURES MARKETS OR ANY GIVEN TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY. From: R Quant